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I’ll admit I wasn’t entirely sure what to expect from the Pallister campaign. It didn’t take long for his name to emerge as a possible contender(probable winner) shortly after October 4. Then we had the inevitable rush from many members of caucus to endorse him. Seemed like deja vu. All the party needs is a new leader and we’ll magically win the next election. 

After a number of caucus members declared they were not running I thought I really need to find out what he brings, and get a glimpse of the type of party we could expect under Brian Pallister as leader. I had the opportunity to listen to him speak on Saturday. Without doubt the most striking thing about the man is his talking style. There hasn’t been a PC Party leader that is that animated and speaks with that much passion in years. How he spoke really isn’t that important to me right now, though. It was the substance that had the biggest impact. He wasn’t afraid to acknowledge the mistakes of the past. He knows there is a large disconnect with the party membership and the platform that we ran on last year. He seems to determined to right wrongs and make being a member of the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba something people can be proud of again.

I’ve never viewed this leadership race as being any kind of Red Tory vs. Blue Tory competition. The issue needs to be about who is willing to acknowledge that this party hasn’t added to its seat count in an election since 1995. Return to status quo vs. making much needed changes. I believe Brian Pallister is willing to make the changes necessary to get the party back on track. More needs to be done than changing the party logo.

Something that did a lot to convince me to support Pallister is the endorsement from Ron Schuler. He’s not the type of person that just jumps on a bandwagon for a cause he doesn’t truly believe in. Ron put forward a platform to reform the party in 2006 that the party clearly wasn’t ready for. Two losses later, maybe it’s time. Ron isn’t just letting his name and a quote go up on the Pallister website he’s enthusiastically speaking out in favour of his leadership.

Of course one of the most interesting things in politics is the leadership race. With a guy as competitive as Brian Pallister I’m sure he’s gearing up for a challenge, but at this point I’m really not sure who could possibly pose a reasonable challenge. It’s getting to be crunch time, if someone’s not in by the end of this month I’m not sure there will be a race. If that’s the case it opens up a whole new set of questions. Guess we’ll wait and see.

So Brian Pallister will make it official tomorrow. 

The campaign slogan seems to be “Aim higher Manitoba” as a couple of MLAs have begun using the #aimhighermb hashtag and a tweetless @aimhighermb has sprung up.

I’m sure the official list of early caucus supporters will come out at the announcement but based on twitter he’s got Myrna Driedger and Kelvin Goertzen firmly in support. 

Kelvin’s eager supporting is interesting given how recently he was mulling over a bid himself. 

Fact is, we still don’t actually have a race until someone else gets in. There does seem to be at least a couple credible candidates giving it some thought. The challenge now appears to be fight against the perception that Pallister already has it wrapped up. 

There will definitely be a push for a Winnipeg candidate to get in the race but in a party with a caucus that is 3/4 outside of the perimeter. Plus 1 of 4 Winnipeg MLAs (so far) firmly in support of Pallister. Being the “Winnipeg candidate” isn’t gonna cut it. 

While people that view Pallister as the inevitable winner will be coming out early in support there’s still many in the party pushing for a challenger to avoid a coronation. Depending on the candidate and the longer it takes to get in that person becomes the one that “made it a race.” Unless they entered the race just to raise their profile (and is this really the right venue for that?) working like crazy for a few month just to lose horribly isn’t a good feeling. 

2 weeks after I write about the lack of interest in leadership from the PC caucus Jim Downey appears in a Freep article essentially making the same argument. It’s good except for the part about a stable of MLAs interested in leadership during the Filmon government. They disappeared when the opportunity arose? Regardless, it’s good that a respected elder in the party is talking about these things. No one else seems to be. 

In lieu of anything actually happening on the leadership front we’ve had a few draft campaigns come and go. Have to wonder what the people responsible for the 1000 memberships to enter rule are thinking when reading stories about the lack of interest in running. A few thousand dollar entry fee to keep the real fringe candidates out and maybe the race would open up to newer faces who could bring some different perspectives to the race. Would maybe give people something to talk about. With the lack of movement we’ve also entered into silly season with a couple fake twitter accounts popping up, which on occasion have been good for a laugh. 

Be interesting to see what happens over the next couple of weeks. There still really isn’t a huge rush yet to get moving. I’m sure the logic in the Pallister campaign is to maintain frontrunner status without actually jumping in and spending money etc. Not to mention the poor record frontrunners have had in leadership races in other provinces lately. 

When reading this article I was struck by one thing. Leanne Rowat’s reaction to the half hearted twitter movement that was trying to get her to run for the PC leadership. “I’m not interested in running for leadership.”

The PC Party has 19 elected MLAs. Let’s exclude Hugh McFadyen, he won it now he’s moving on. 18, Ron Schuler ran last time but was up against a candidate the party establishment had decided they wanted and no one really was interested in his reforms for the party. Ron’s not prepared to get back into it. Understandable, but clearly we know he does have a desire to lead the party. Heather Stefanson was immediately mentioned as a possible candidate but due to young children she’s not ready to jump in at this time. I get it, she at least took some time to consider it. 

This leaves Kelvin Goertzen as the only other member of caucus who has even hinted that he’d be interested in leading the party. 

This leaves us with 15 other members who have put their names on ballots. Take a seat in the legislative assembly, have legislative offices and don’t even consider themselves capable of leading their party?!

Obviously all members of caucus can’t run. I’m sure many would have good reasons not to. But they’ve immediately just shut the door to the idea entirely? We have Winnipeg city councillors that haven’t shut the door on running but actual members of caucus “aren’t interested”? 

Yes, this party has problems. And you don’t have to look very far to find them. 

We’ve had another candidate declare she’s out. Heather Stefanson joined Brian Bowman and Rod Bruinooge and said the PC leadership wasn’t for her. All three would have been Winnipeg candidates. Which leaves only one candidate from Winnipeg who has openly said he’s thinking about it, pizza guy Jerry Cianflone. 

This is a big problem. We all know the road to government goes through Winnipeg. I’m not saying the party absolutely needs to elect a leader from Winnipeg, but there at least needs to be a credible Winnipeg contender in the race. This has obviously led to the Draft Scott Fielding movement. The blog does a fairly decent run down of what Scott would bring to the race. Fielding’s reaction would show that a run has so far been off his radar. We’ll see what comes of it at least the draft campaign has created at least a little buzz and maybe reminds people there are still no declared candidates. 

Now that the date has been set we can truly let the speculation begin!

Let’s be honest the leader of the current PC party is not a glamorous job. Anyone considering running has to be prepared for 7 years as leader of the opposition. Not saying it’s for certain but we have to be realistic and stop assuming that things will just swing back and Manitoba will elect a Conservative government. Obviously winning in 2015 will be the goal of the next leader, but it’s an uphill battle and far from certain.

With the way these races go in Manitoba it would be shocking to see any more than three candidates enter the race. Wouldn’t be surprised if it were just the two. The next few months will likely just be potential candidates feeling around for an idea of who else will run and what effect that would have on their support. I expect a few “I’m not running” announcements in the new year. Hopefully all done in modest op-eds in the Winnipeg Sun. 

So, let’s speculate. 

The ones openly considering. 

Rob Bruinooge

The first of the new year to decline. Unfortunately no op-ed.

Jerry Cianflone, Founder of Pizza Hotline and Cafe 22

Just the fact that he’s said he’s considered a run is a positive for the party. A successful businessperson thinking he would like to lead the party would show that the party is worth a drastic career change and presumably large salary cut. 

He’s definitely the most interesting name being thrown out there, I would say mostly because it’s a new face and people have heard of him because of the pizza. Just from looking at twitter the day this came out he had more buzz than any other potential candidate. 

He’d certainly bring something new and an outsider’s perspective to the race, but the party establishment really isn’t inclusive and it would be interesting to see if he could crack it. 

Ultimately, I don’t see him diving in. He would have a really well fed campaign team though. 

Kelvin Goertzen, Steinbach MLA

Being one of the more high profiles members of caucus it’s kind of inevitable that his name would be tossed around for possible leadership. As justice critic he’s had a lot of media on crime issues. Like finance this was another area that the campaign let slip out of their hands in the election. 

He’d certainly have a lot of rural support. Seeing that 90% of his riding votes for him he would have a strong base and could likely grow in Winnipeg with a tough on crime attitude. 

He released this news release in 2006 when he decided not to run that time. 

In making the decision, Goertzen said he and his wife concluded that three things were needed to make a successful leadership run; a strong base of support, ideas to better Manitoba and the comfort that it was the right personal time for such a bid.

“You really need strong support, a strong message and a strong belief that it’s the right time,” said Goertzen. “I was satisfied that the support was there to launch a credible campaign and I believe that I have ideas related to our economy, health care, agriculture and justice to improve the province. In the end however I know the personal sacrifice needed in terms of being away from family for extended periods and those factors made the decision.”

Based on that I would say he still has numbers and two. The question will still be if it’s the right personal time. At the time his son hadn’t been born yet. He now has a young son and I’m sure that’s playing a huge role in this decision. 

Brian Pallister, Former MLA and MP

By far the most vocal about his intentions to possibly run. Pallister swooped in quickly after the election likely hoping for a short leadership campaign where he’d stroll in and save the party. It’s been a couple months now since he came out with ideas for a Bipole referendum and shopped around an op-ed to rural newspapers about grain. He criticized the PC campaign, but the talk is many of his backers were quite influential on that campaign. He won’t be able to have it both ways.

Have to assume if he’s serious about running we’ll start hearing more from him soon. 

Tom Brodbeck has already predicted he’ll win. So I’ll take that to mean he won’t. Like Bruinooge he may appeal to federal Conservatives that haven’t taken much of an interest in the provincial party as of late. Certainly he currently has a base of support right now but from anything I’ve heard he doesn’t have a lot of room for growth outside of that. You’d think he could clean up outside of the perimeter but that may not be the case. 

For a list drawbacks to his candidacy just read the Black Rod written the last time he mulled a run but backed out. If he doesn’t go ahead with it this time I guess he’ll be known as the Frank McKenna of Manitoba. 

Heather Stefanson, Tuxedo MLA

She obviously stands out from the others from the get-go. She’s the only female who’s name has really been tossed around. Undeniably there’s been a shift toward women in provincial politics as of late. There are currently three female Premiers in the country, all leaders of the parties on the right(ish). 

The biggest criticism she’ll have to overcome is being seen as too close the McFadyen. But, as finance critic she introduced the PC budget amendment, which was aimed to cut the NDPs projected 5 year deficit down to 2. The campaign brain trust abandoning that and releasing the asinine 2018 target was likely what disgruntled the base the most during the election. 

She will definitely have a wide-appeal to Winnipeg members and will have some reaching out to do in rural areas to gain some traction. Having a young family will have to be a big consideration of whether or not she’ll run. 

There’s no denying seeing her beside old man Selinger would be a stark contrast. 

Possible?

Gord Steeves, Former City Councillor

There seems to a bit of talk that he’s interested or people are encouraging him to run. 

If he is interested in leading a party in Manitoba he should run on the idea of merging with the Liberals. He has no natural constituency within the party. He’s deeper rooted in the Liberal party. It kinda makes sense. It would also make for a very interesting candidacy, at least from my perspective. If there ever was serious talk of merging the two he would actually make sense as bridge builder. To lead the PC party in it’s current form? I don’t see it. 

There’s also the question of do we want replace our current middle-aged Winnipeg lawyer, with another middle-aged Winnipeg lawyer. 

I had considered writing some kind of election wrap up. What went wrong, etc. etc. But honestly there’s not a lot of point in doing that. The parties will have to do that themselves as they face another four years of the status quo. 

It’s going to be a very interesting few years in Manitoba politics. The Progressive Conservatives will elect a new leader and try to find new ways to gain support in Winnipeg. 

The Liberals will elect a new leader and just try to be relevant to anyone. 

First the PC Party:

Media loves speculation stories on who will and won’t run. Many candidates that have been mentioned for no real reason won’t say they aren’t going to run because they like seeing their name in the paper. 

The party would be much better off if there are many leadership candidates, but if history is any indication I think we’ll be lucky to have three. Groupthink has prevailed in the past and I’ve yet to see any indications it won’t this time around. Must be why Brain Pallister has been lining up support before actually throwing his hat in the ring, just like he did last time. Definitely get the impression he won’t run unless he feels he’ll win it in a coronation.

Until the rules are in place and a convention date is announced it’s pretty tough to speculate on the candidates. Personally, I’m in favour of a spring 2012 vote. The new leader will have a lot of work to do and they may as well get started sooner than later. The argument for a fall 2012 vote will be to give the party time to figure out what it stands for etc. Hopefully that debate, the fight over ideas and the future of the party will happen during a leadership race. The party can vote who it thinks is best for the party and we’ll move forward with the ideas put forward by the candidates. 

The positive thing is after not winning an election since 1995, I think finally members have realized the fundamental problems the party has. In 2006 no one saw it, the establishment picked their candidate. Two losses later, here we are.

The Liberals on the other hand I just find incredibly interesting. Here they have a doctor who could offer so much more to the province in what he is educated in. Yet, insists on sticking around with a party that hasn’t had official party status in over 15 years. I don’t get this guy. He even seemed reluctant to step down in 2013. I get how there’s no rush to replace him, though. The party will be hurting financially for years. They have to be praying for some interesting candidates to emerge, they desperately need some kind of buzz. 

I do think if they could have gotten rid of Gerrard a few years ago, had a new leader this year they had a chance to make at least a small breakthrough. Selinger is just such an unlikeable guy, McFadyen wasn’t resonating with voters. Who knows maybe a fresh face at the table would have changed the complexion of the race. 

I really have to give credit to the loyal Liberals who will continue to fight the good fight. The Manitoba Liberal brand hasn’t been relevant in years, and the once mighty federal brand has also gone down the toilet. These are really grim days for Manitoba Liberals. Any supporters at this point are sticking around because they believe in something, they can’t be in it for personal gain. 

Manitoba political junkies are definitely in for some interesting times. I’m looking forward to it!

To be honest the fact that Selinger still has a chance of remaining Premier after the 4th is kind of amazing to me. He’s not a likable guy, the NDP really haven’t accomplished anything that big in 12 years. They governed through some good times and were able to spend after Filmon balanced the books in the ‘90’s. In many ways the economic downturn and the acceptance of stimulus spending really just gave them cover for getting rid of the balanced budget legislation. Now with the PC party promising to have deficits even longer than the NDP they’re completely off the hook. 

This election the NDP has run one of the most cynical, negative campaigns I can think of. Even more than in 2007 when Doer suddenly called it hours after Harper left a big Human Rights Museum event and election day fell the day after May long weekend. But remember, “Hope is greater than fear.”

The NDP’s framing of McFadyen has obviously been very effective. After 12 years the appetite for change should be inevitable, even if times are relatively good. Think Saskatchewan in 2007. It’s really no wonder why people have really soured on politics. 

Still one more day to get the vote out so it’s not time to write the post-mortem. I fully expect many close races at the riding level tomorrow. It’s not crazy to think a thousand votes throughout the province could decide who forms government.

Having such a large majority in the legislature, there isn’t a lot of new ground for the NDP to pick up this time around. Selinger did show some confidence on day one by hitting River East and Brandon West, those two and Tyndall Park are the only realistic pick ups. But interesting that on one of the last days of the campaign he spent time in Radisson, which would typically be called a pretty safe NDP seat. 

Usually the NDP is seen to have the strongest organization on the ground, but they’re on a bit of a losing streak in the last year. NDP aligned candidates didn’t fair well on the civic campaign and they managed to lose two federal NDP strongholds in May. Still unclear if they’re organization just isn’t what it used to be or if they’re just that much more motivated at the provincial level, when more people’s jobs depend on it…

Either way should be an interesting day tomorrow. I’m expecting at least a couple surprises. 

Only 5 days left in the campaign and I don’t think anyone really knows what to expect on Oct. 4. What we do know is the PC strategy for this election has clearly been to run on “change” for change’s sake and not any real wedge issues between them and the NDP. Other than Bipole which, was talked about a lot pre writ then kind of disappeared. Reminds me of Crocus before the 2007 election.

This election really should be the PC’s to lose. It appears as if the NDP’s defining of McFadyen has pushed the party away from just about any small ‘c’ conservative policies, instead, playing it safe with targeted tax credits and no plans to balance the budget until 2018. The attacks against the PCs on health care is obviously a sore spot as they’ve basically promised to throw more money at the system for nurses and doctors instead of proposing interesting reforms to the system. 

I’m not entirely sure how effective the “McFadyen will sell Hydro” attacks are. If McFadyen becomes Premier on the 4th he’ll want to be re-elected four years later. There is no way imaginable he will go back on his word and sell Hydro after saying he wouldn’t for the last five years. And I’m not even sure what he stands to gain by selling it. 

Another interesting aspect of this race is how the MLP’s numbers can help elect a PC government. The last two majority PC governments were won when the Liberals took 28% of the popular vote in 1990 and 23% in 1995. I don’t think anyone expects the Liberals to get anywhere near 20% in this election. It looks as if the PC party has been planning on a Liberal collapse and that’s why they’ve been running so hard in River Heights. The Liberal vote should be up for grabs, the PCs can’t rely on a strong MLP to split the vote in their favour, so they’ve just decided to go out and get those votes. Having for MLP candidate Gord Steeves run on the PC ticket can only help that. 

Here are the must win seats for the Progressive Conservatives: (not even to form government just a bare minimum)

Dawson Trail - A new riding that takes up much of incumbent Ron Lemieux’s La Varendrye riding. PC candidate Laurent Tetrault has as good a shot as anybody to knock him off. 

Gimli - A PC seat until Bjornson won it in 2003 this is the type of rural seat that should easily be won the by PCs in a good election.

La Varendrye - Significant boundary changes led Lemieux to change ridings. This technically shouldn’t be a pick-up as it just makes up for the loss of a seat in the Southwest. It’s as good as a held seat for the PCs. 

Swan River - With Wowchuk taking a pass on this election it hasn’t been this winnable in years. 

Kirkfield Park - This seat should have never been lost in 2007. Kinda seems weird that the seat formerly held by Eric Stefanson and Stuart Murray is currently occupied by an NDP member with pink streaks in her hair. 

River Heights - Conventionally, I wouldn’t have thought of this as “must win” but with the anticipated collapse of Liberal support and Marty Morantz going hard here it’s completely winnable. This seat was also PC held the last time they formed government. 

Southdale - The biggest lesson in 2007 should have come from this riding. Never take your seat for granted. Jack Reimer was upset by a hardworking NDP team and a very likable woman candidate. The PCs need to take this back. 

St. Norbert - This seems to be the NDP are most willing to concede. With the incumbent not running and the problems the NDP had nominating a candidate, plus favourable redistribution for the PCs would be hard to see this not going PC. 

The goal of this campaign obviously isn’t to be a stronger Official Opposition with 26 seats. 

Here are the musts to form government:

Assiniboia - PCs have a candidate with strong name recognition which is needed against Rondeau who is by all accounts quite popular locally. 

Riel - Won the NDP when they formed government in ‘99 this is definitely a bellweather riding. PC candidates Rochelle Squires has been working this seat hard, while Chris(tine) Melnick has been a pretty lackluster minister. 

Seine River - A 2003 pick-up by the NDP. This has been on everyone’s “to watch” list with Gord Steeves challenging Health Minister Theresa Oswald. This will be very interesting. 

The PCs will take government even with the thinnest of seats but a comfortable majority will need at least a few of these seats. 

Interlake - This has long been a target for the PCs, but has always gotten away from them. Certain tactics in 1995 have insured they wouldn’t win it for another 15 years. With flooding issues and a useless NDP MLA this is probably the best chance in a long time. 

Selkirk - I see this going PC if there is a lot of momentum for the party. We haven’t seen that yet. Maybe with enough of a ground game this one could happen…

Brandon East - We know Mike Waddell has been working hard here for years. With hard work and the strong PC ground game here this could surprise a lot of people on election night. 

Dauphin - This seat hasn’t gone PC since 1981, but PC candidate Lloyd McKinney had a stronger showing here in 2007 than I expected. Rural PC numbers are high, this has potential. 

Rossmere - Vic Toews took this seat for the PCs in 1995. If low PC polling in Winnipeg is right this is tough, but not impossible. 

Fort Richmond - I think PC candidate, Shaun McCaffrey is flying under the radar here. I wouldn’t be surprised if NDP sent resources into other ridings and forgot about this. This definitely has upset potential. 

Radisson - Momentum for the federal Conservatives has made this one a little more interesting. Made up of chunks of federal seats Elmwood-Transcona and Saint Boniface the potential conservative voter is there. It’s another that the NDP may have taken for granted. 

*Honourable Mentions - St. James, St. Vital

One assumes this will be the last election for leader Jon Gerrard if he can’t at the very least finish the election with one other seat besides his own. Considering he’s never led the party to victory in more than 2 seats since he became leader even that likely won’t be enough. 

The Liberals will likely have candidates in all 57 ridings which is fairly impressive all things considered. Some of their candidates aren’t even too bad judging from their bios. 

It looks like pressure for saving the party will be on 26 year old Roldan Sevillano. He’s running in Tyndall Park, the new riding that closest resembles Kevin Lamoureux’s Inkster riding. Winning here won’t be a sure thing though, the NDP will be hungry to grab this seat.

There aren’t a lot of other areas where the Liberals look to be strong. Other than the two seats they won in 2007 they placed second in only 6 other ridings, including Flin Flon where there was no PC candidate. The only 2007 result that was somewhat interesting was Fort Rouge with the last saviour of the party Paul Hesse. Despite being the next big thing for the Liberals he still lost to then rookie Jennifer Howard, falling 16% short. He’s running again but now it’s against the incumbent Howard who’s in cabiniet and has been a pretty active voice for the government. (Any one know where I can find the video of Doer smacking him down on election night in his typical smugness?)

Other targets would seem to be the inner-city ridings Logan, Minto, Point Douglas. Where they did place in a distant 2nd in 2007.

Gerrard will be running a full province campaign but at the same time he’ll need to look over his shoulder in River Heights where the Tories have been campaigning pretty hard for over a year. If the Liberal message fails to resonate in the rest of the province you have to wonder if voters in River Heights will tire of electing an MLA who could very well go back to the legislature as a caucus of one.

Another interesting happening is Gord Steeves’ decision to run as a Tory. It’s no secret he was a fairly prominent provincial Liberal, his name tossed around to potentially replace Gerrard. This plus the implosion of the federal Liberals can’t do the party any favours as it grasps for life.

I think it’s pretty obvious that Gerrard won’t be able to compete with the other leaders based on personality. They’ll need to turn the focus towards policy, which won’t be easy in this province. Something will need to be done to make the party stand out. In this situation I would likely have released the platform a year or a few months ago, loaded with some fairly substantial, bold ideas. If there was a fear of other parties stealing those ideas, if it’s a good idea they probably would have anyways at least you got ahead of it.

The other hope I seem to be hearing is that people will tire of voting either NDP or PC so they’ll turn to the Liberals as an alternative. That sounds good but that won’t just happen. If there’s a comparison to the rise of the federal NDP that doesn’t really work. Since Layton took over the NDP they gradually got bigger each election, under Gerrard the party has stagnated. Also, much of the newly gained NDP strength was in Quebec. There is no Quebec equivalent in Manitoba, a large number of seats that already vote for a third party so they just decide to park their vote with another.

If the Liberals pick up one, two or no seats I suspect local Liberals will complain that the media never allowed their message to really get out there. And I won’t necessarily disagree with that. Gerrard may very well be the smartest leader in the race but he’s never done retail politics well and until something changes that’s how you’ll win elections.